Fully Featured & Customizable Free Forums
InvisionFree - Free Forum Hosting
Welcome to Tristateweather. We hope you enjoy your visit.
You're currently viewing our forum as a guest. This means you are limited to certain areas of the board and there are some features you can't use. If you join our community, you'll be able to access member-only sections, and use many member-only features such as the ability to post, full access to all forums and attending exclusive weather events. Registration is simple, fast, and completely free.
Join our community!
If you're already a member please log in to your account to access all of our features:

Name:   Password:




Like Us on facebook

Summer Headlines:
Last Updated: 7/23 Next Update: as needed

Be sure to follow us on twitter @tristateweather for our short fused updates!
~Join over 100,000 fans on our facebook page for daily and long term weather info!
~Visit the weather discussion below for detailed technical discussion

Pages: (3) [1] 2 3  ( Go to first unread post )

 2/3/14 Snow event
Snow88
Posted: Jan 30 2014, 05:45 PM


Survived the Day After Tomorrow!


Group: Members
Posts: 7,103
Member No.: 36
Joined: 2-January 12



The models are starting to shift north with the light snow event.
Top
Snow88
Posted: Jan 30 2014, 06:53 PM


Survived the Day After Tomorrow!


Group: Members
Posts: 7,103
Member No.: 36
Joined: 2-January 12



18z DGEX for Monday

user posted image
Top
LIsnowBubble
Posted: Jan 30 2014, 07:19 PM


Survived the Day After Tomorrow!


Group: Members
Posts: 7,166
Member No.: 46
Joined: 3-January 12



Lets hope cold enough for snow, but Weds storm would wash that away....shows up on Canadian as snow as well.... We know the big player is next Saturday/Sunday...
Top
Jmorley18
Posted: Jan 30 2014, 08:51 PM


Veteran Weather Warrior


Group: Members
Posts: 565
Member No.: 331
Joined: 14-February 13



^if It all gets washed away, I wouldn't care ONLY if The 8th storm pans out
Top
mfd301
Posted: Jan 30 2014, 09:54 PM


Veteran Weather Warrior


Group: Members
Posts: 847
Member No.: 14
Joined: 1-January 12



I just got home from work I know about the mid week storm but what's on the map for next weekend?
Top
WinterWXLover14
Posted: Jan 30 2014, 10:07 PM


Extreme Weather Warrior


Group: Members
Posts: 1,153
Member No.: 244
Joined: 16-September 12



QUOTE (Snow88 @ Jan 30 2014, 04:45 PM)
The models are starting to shift north with the light snow event.

People are very focused on Tuesday night into Wednesday and then next weekend, as these are the more powerful storms. However, Monday needs to be watched for a nice light to moderate event. Steve D and Bernie Rano have been talking about this for a few days now. Both saying this storm should be watched and not ignored. Not for a significant snowfall, but a nice light to moderate snowfall is not out of the question for everyone. I think the Monday storm has the potential to be a 1-4" type storm. For example maybe 1-2" by the coast, and a bit more inland. Still, plenty of time for things to get ironed out.... but this has the potential to be a sneaky little storm.

This then sets the stage for Tues night and Wed, and is definitely important for this storm. For late Tues-Wed AM we look to start as snow, but I honestly have little doubt we change over as we see the low lift in the ohio valley and warm air invades the upper atmosphere from the South. NOW.. this storm essentially hits a wall on its track near the Apps because of the Polar Vortex. Simple physics with low pressure system. This PV is going to force this storm to redevelop along the coast...

SUBJECT TO CHANGE!!!! BUT... at this point in time, It appears that places near the coast change over to a brief period of ice after some snowfall, then go over to rain, before maybe ending as snow at the very end. As always, banking on bank end snows is risky and should never be done. HOWEVER, this is a different story for places JUST away from the coast. With a snowpack in place and a high pressure system near Maine, cold air is going to VERY stubborn. We could be looking a prolonged icing event following the initial snowfal. It could be quite dangerous to be honest. I do think places in NWNJ and NEPA stay primarily snow and could see a healthy 6+ from this system.

The unknown in my opinion, which are very important are as follows:

1) How strong is the HP in New England and where is it located?

2) Where is the PV located, as well as its strength?

3) Where does this storm jump to the coast? HUGE impact on precip types. If it jumps farther south near Delaware, we have much more time for temperatures to crash to the coast. A transfer just south of NYC is awful for us.

4) How far off the coast does this storm track after it redevelops? A coastal hugger keeps the heavy snow confined to areas well N&W, forms a nasty ice storm in NNJ Lohud and interior CT, and results in primarily rain along the coast.. However, a storm that tracks even 50-100 miles east of the coastline, we are looking at primarily snow for a much larger area. Also the threat of a nasty ice storm will diminish and be much more confined. I can deal with rain. Disappointing yes... but there is NOTHING fun about an ice storm.

My opinion? We get a track in between what we all are rooting for and a coastal hugger. Don't see all snow for the entire area. Best shot is probably 50+ miles from the coast. Plenty of time for things to change and models will have a better grasp on things after Monday's event has come and gone.

Will not even get into next weekends storm. All that matters at this point is a storm will be present SOMEWHERE and it is going to be STRONG. Very very moisture laden and with cold air lingering and the potential for a blocking upstream, things could get VERY interesting. Any attempt at details at this point is just plain foolish.

This post has been edited by WinterWXLover14 on Jan 30 2014, 10:08 PM
Top
iceman
Posted: Jan 31 2014, 12:26 AM


Getting Comfortable Now!


Group: Members
Posts: 95
Member No.: 65
Joined: 3-January 12



Wow Nam and gfs are far apart on Monday storm be interesting to see how the pattern sets up on Sunday after the storm cuts up into the great lakes
Top
jm2974
Posted: Jan 31 2014, 12:29 AM


Extreme Weather Warrior


Group: Members
Posts: 1,362
Member No.: 121
Joined: 7-January 12




Great write up there! And yes Monday should be watched.

As for mid-week, where the low re-develops is key. Models won't have a try handle on things for a while, will be interesting to watch.
Top
Weathergun
Posted: Jan 31 2014, 02:23 AM


Board Coordinator


Group: Moderators
Posts: 13,678
Member No.: 2
Joined: 23-December 11



0z Euro has this storm further north. Rain/snow mix going over to snow. Total qpf is .50-.80". Looks like 2-4" of snow at least.
Top
WinterWXLover14
Posted: Jan 31 2014, 03:19 AM


Extreme Weather Warrior


Group: Members
Posts: 1,153
Member No.: 244
Joined: 16-September 12



QUOTE (Weathergun @ Jan 31 2014, 01:23 AM)
0z Euro has this storm further north. Rain/snow mix going over to snow. Total qpf is .50-.80". Looks like 2-4" of snow at least.

Didn't get a chance to take a look at the 0z Euro, but with .5-.8 QPF and only 2-4" of snow, I can deduce that about half of the precipitation falls as a mix/rain (about .3" to .4" of liquid)

Now we also NEED to get used to the fact that any snow we see out of the next 3 potential systems (Monday event, Tues night/Wed AM event, and the potential big daddy on Sat/Sun) will more than likely feature ratios around 10:1, maybe even less in a storm like the one we see Wednesday morning where surface temps will be freezing or even a degree or two above as it is snowing. Next weekend could be a bit better with the potential to have a decent air mass in place. So, no more seeing 0.25" of QPF equaling 5" of snow. In these storms a quarter inch of QPF is more like two to three inches. Which also means that folks need to be careful shoveling again! We were blessed with very powdery snow, which was amazing for accumulations but also shoveling or in some cases, brooming.


Miguel, what was the Euro showing before this run? Honestly, I haven't looked at it much this winter. It has been absolutely terrible. Something is seriously wrong with that model lately. It hasn't just been "kind of" wrong.. it has been atrocious.
Top
WinterWXLover14
Posted: Jan 31 2014, 03:27 AM


Extreme Weather Warrior


Group: Members
Posts: 1,153
Member No.: 244
Joined: 16-September 12



QUOTE (jm2974 @ Jan 30 2014, 11:29 PM)
Great write up there!  And yes Monday should be watched.

As for mid-week, where the low re-develops is key. Models won't have a try handle on things for a while, will be interesting to watch.

Thank you JM - I appreciate the kind words. The past few months I have really been using my spare time at home after getting home from Apple to learn more and more about the what's, how's, why's of the weather. I used to honestly just read surface maps on the model, look at the 540 line and model watch. I wanted to know WHY these models were having this outcome and the reasoning as to why I should or should not discount them. I have not only been listening to people on the board like Miguel, who knows teleconnections very well, but also various Meteorologists and by doing a ton of research online regarding the 500 mb patterns, the AO/NAO, EPO, MJO, PNA, etc. I am by no means a pro and have SOOOOO much more to learn, but I definitely think I have a much firmer grip on the basics to be able to formulate my own predictions. Lately I have been trying to chime in my thoughts whenever possible by typing up some discussions and long posts. Helps get things going on the board and I really enjoy the back and forth responses. Debate and discussion is the best way to learn smile.gif

Monday is a must watch, I agree! And I honestly don't think models will have a firm grip on the Tues-Wed threat until we are about 24-36 hours out. It is important for models to see what happens with the Monday storm in order to get proper data for the following event on Tues night. It definitely plays a big role in a system that follows in its footsteps only a day afterward! A decent snowpack in the wake of Mondays system, as well as the track of the system could both be very important. Have to remember that the disturbance ahead of the Tues/Wed event downstream is just as important as what is behind it on the maps! Monday system has implications on what the pattern looks like upstream in the Atlantic and could effect thing like the track, strength and redevelopment location.

This post has been edited by WinterWXLover14 on Jan 31 2014, 03:37 AM
Top
Weathergun
Posted: Jan 31 2014, 09:08 AM


Board Coordinator


Group: Moderators
Posts: 13,678
Member No.: 2
Joined: 23-December 11



Snowfall maps do show up to 6" for NYC and NNJ. But the Euro had marginal 850mb and 2m temps, and 1000-500mb thicknesses as precip comes in. So I assume there some mixing or melting, at the start. 2-4" is my conservative amount, based on this solution.

The Euro ENS Mean has .30-.40" for CNJ,NYC, LI. Less north, more south. Temps are about the same. So it has some support from its ensembles. But the Euro guidance has been too amplified of late.

This is an overrunning wave along frontal boundary. Which is always difficult for the models to handle. They have all be waffling back and forth on bringing this system farther north, this week. The latest NAM and GFS are now complete miss to the south. My guess is that we won't see a final solution until inside 24-48hr.
Top
Weathergun
Posted: Jan 31 2014, 02:41 PM


Board Coordinator


Group: Moderators
Posts: 13,678
Member No.: 2
Joined: 23-December 11



12z NAM and GFS give us nothing. The GEFS was little more generous with .10-.25" over CNJ south. Less from NYC north. 12z GGEM gives .10-.25" qpf over NYC and LI. more south, less north. Don't know total qpf on the UKMET. But it looked flat.

12z Euro a little further south and less amplifed. Total qpf is .30-.50". Except .10-.30" north of the Tappen Zee Bridge and .50-.60 over CNJ. Where basically 1-3"/2-4"/4-6" north to south, assuming temps support accumulation.

Will post a few thoughts after the EC ENS Mean is out.
Top
Weathergun
Posted: Jan 31 2014, 07:24 PM


Board Coordinator


Group: Moderators
Posts: 13,678
Member No.: 2
Joined: 23-December 11



The 12z EC ENS Mean, show .30-.50" over CNJ south. And .10"-.30" for NYC north. This is little further south than the 0z run.

However, the 15z SREF and 18z NAM and GFS, have come further north. On the models, we are sandwiched in between two upper-level jet streaks. Which results in rising motion. So there is good possibly this trends more wetter and stronger, in future runs.

user posted image
Top
WeatherNut26
Posted: Feb 1 2014, 01:31 AM


Survived the Day After Tomorrow!


Group: Members
Posts: 12,682
Member No.: 8
Joined: 31-December 11



You have to like how the models continue to trend north. GGEM tonight gives the entire area several inches of snow. NAM and GFS are slowly getting closer ... I bet by tomorrow night they will show north Jersey and NYC getting decent snow. We've seen a few times this winter that models did not pick up on the area getting accumulating snow until 48 hours before the event.
Top
Snow88
Posted: Feb 1 2014, 01:42 AM


Survived the Day After Tomorrow!


Group: Members
Posts: 7,103
Member No.: 36
Joined: 2-January 12



0z GGEM is a stronger hit for the area than previous runs for Monday

user posted image
Top
Weathergun
Posted: Feb 1 2014, 03:24 AM


Board Coordinator


Group: Moderators
Posts: 13,678
Member No.: 2
Joined: 23-December 11



0z GGEM has .50"-.75" qpf for NYC, LI, CNJ. But the 0z ECMWF went south, now has .10 - .30" qpf for NYC and LI.
Top
Dopp
Posted: Feb 1 2014, 06:54 AM


Sig Legend


Group: Members
Posts: 6,716
Member No.: 120
Joined: 7-January 12



Temps look marginal for this potential event for the coast and must be monitored.
Top
Snow88
Posted: Feb 1 2014, 09:46 AM


Survived the Day After Tomorrow!


Group: Members
Posts: 7,103
Member No.: 36
Joined: 2-January 12



Upton's snow map

user posted image

DT is going with 3-6 for the NYC area
Top
jm2974
Posted: Feb 1 2014, 09:50 AM


Extreme Weather Warrior


Group: Members
Posts: 1,362
Member No.: 121
Joined: 7-January 12





Wow! I think if this verifies it will have implications for Wednesday's storm. Could keep surface temps colder /longer.
Top
mfd301
Posted: Feb 1 2014, 09:55 AM


Veteran Weather Warrior


Group: Members
Posts: 847
Member No.: 14
Joined: 1-January 12



Yes I was thinking the same thing hoping that snow cover would help
Top
Weathergun
Posted: Feb 1 2014, 10:05 AM


Board Coordinator


Group: Moderators
Posts: 13,678
Member No.: 2
Joined: 23-December 11



9z SREF mean is further north. Now with .25"-.50" qpf from CNJ-NYC-LI. 2m 32F line is over Western LI. The heavier precip we see on Monday, the colder it will be.

This post has been edited by Weathergun on Feb 1 2014, 10:06 AM
Top
« Next Oldest | General Weather Discussion | Next Newest »
InvisionFree - Free Forum Hosting
Free Forums. Reliable service with over 8 years of experience.
Learn More · Register for Free

Topic OptionsPages: (3) [1] 2 3 



Hosted for free by InvisionFree* (Terms of Use: Updated 2/10/2010) | Powered by Invision Power Board v1.3 Final © 2003 IPS, Inc.
Page creation time: 0.8296 seconds | Archive