Prospect Watch 2012, Future MLB stars of today

With apologies to the Reds and Red Sox fans who updated on 'last year's site', here's the five players in the Nats farm system I'll be keeping tabs on:

1. Danny Rosenbaum 24yr old LHSP

2011 stats: Potomac (A+) 6-5, 2.59ERA, 132IP, 108Ks, 41BBs, 1.17 WHIP
Harrisburg (AA) 3-1, 2.29ERA, 39.1 IP, 27Ks, 11BBs, 1.04 WHIP

This southpaw has moved smoothly through the ranks without hitting any bumps, culminating in last year's excellent stats. A groundball pitcher who excels in keeping the ball in the park, (13HRs given up in over 350IP in the minors), Rosenbaum's heater tops out at 93 and he's got a changeup, curve and slider, effective in that order. The Nationals have had no little success with small college pitchers in the past (Take a bow, Dana Brown) and the 22nd Round pick from basketball powerhouse Xavier University is all set to add to this rep.

Where the Nationals farm system is historically abysmal is in developing OF for the bigs, but the next two players would sure like to end that...

2. Destin Hood - OF (Bats - Throws) R-R

2011 Stats: Potomac A+ (AVG/OBP/SLG) 278/364/445, 13HRs, 83RBIs, 21/27SB, 463AB, 94Ks

Signed in the second round out of HS by Jim Bowden, who fell in love with his raw tools over actual baseball ability, pundits thought the athletic Hood (turned down a full football/academic scholarship at Alabama) could be a sleeper who needed some fine tuning.

Consider him tuned. Despite moving up in class, Hood put together some excellent numbers and will still be just 21 when he joins Harrisburg for 2012. He demonstrated much-improved defense and range at both RF and LF combined with developing smarts and a fine arm. He's on quite a few influential pundits 'players to watch' and he's not done anything yet to disprove this support.

3. Kevin Keyes - RF/1B - R/R

2011 Stats: Hagerstown (A) 263/336/510, 17HRs, 65RBIs, 6/6SB, 304ABs, 80Ks

Light tower power. Listed at 6'3 and 235lbs, Keyes was initially down as a 1st round pick in early 2010 draft lists, but injuries and an alleged dislike of the gym saw him drop down the rankings. Pitching up out of shape for tryouts didn't help and as a result, DC nabbed him in the 7th round.

He spent most of his rookie year getting back in shape and although his given weight may be wishful thinking (about 255lbs is more accurate) his instincts and accurate cannon arm means he can play a solid RF, leading to thoughts of how good he could be if he develops a gym rat mentality. Happily Keyes has been assigned the same guy who finally got the 2011 model Dmitri Young into shape (and he's now a legit 248lbs, some 40lbs lighter than his last MLB outing in a Nats uniform). If the trick can be repeated, Keyes' sheer thunder and athleticism could see him put up Tyler Moore's figures in Potomac come 2012.

4. Alex Meyer - RHSP

Don't normally cover 1st rounders but this fella really intrigues me. A superb senior campaign at Kentucky where he found another two pitches to go with an MLB calibre fastball, Meyer's pure size, (6'9, 230lbs with the build to add another 10-15lbs) brings its bonuses and brickbats.

The good news is that fastball and slider were far too much for most college bats and he has a great work ethic, working a changeup into his repetoire in the college offseason. The downside is being so damn tall could signal problems in repeating his pitching motion, meaning occasional wildness.

The thinking amongst the hierachy in DC is that Jeff Niemann copes perfectly well with being a similar build and so should Meyer, who will be started aggressively in Potomac, along with another hurler with something to prove in Matt Purke. Pfitzer Stadium could be a very difficult venue for opposing hitters in 2012.

5. Josh Smoker LHRP

2011 stats: Potomac (A+) 5-2, 2.31ERA, 50.2IP, 56Ks, 37BB, 1.37WHIP

Probably best remembered for getting a 1st round deal in 2007 which allowed him to complete his Academic scholarship at Stanford whilst playing for the Nats in the college offseason, Smoker's had a series of injuries which have led to some spectacular wildness and subsequent attempts to remodel his motion actually made the situation worse (2010 stats in Hagerstown, 3-10, 6.50ERA, 1.77 WHIP).

Finally, the coaching staff got their heads together, collectively said 'sod it, just let it fly, you're a reliever from hereon in' and promoted him to high A. And it's kind of worked.

As a closer, he still walks far too many (6.6BB/9IP) but when he's on, he hits 101mph and simply overpowers hitters from either side. He'll be the 9th inning guy in Potomac or maybe Harrisburg if he impresses. Time is now slightly against him, having turned 23 in November but he'll keep those in the expensive seats behind home plate entertained, and on a wild night, active.

Hey Barney

I thought it was a rolling thread - sorry mate - my mistake. Hoping to just keep things rolling till ST

Rob


The Reds have spent heavily(in manpower terms) this winter but they currently have, amongst others the following left;

Devin Mesoraco, c

Billy Hamilton, ss

Daniel Corcino, rhp

Robert Stephenson, rhp

Didi Gregorius, ss

Todd Frazier, 3b/1b/of

Mesoraco seems to be well thought of. Has been up briefly but I don't remember seeing him in a game I watched.

Hamilton is fast but needs to show more with the bat.

Cocino is with Dayton at the moment but people are saying good things about him.

Stephenson has a great curveball I have read. He sounds like a genuine prospect.

There's a guy called Zac Cozart who came up last year and was hitting .324 before an injury. Could be the real deal or a good for a deal! He's fully fit again now. He's a rookie really but may not be on your radar due to the injury.


Wonder if we'll have any of these by the end of ST

Hi Rab, no worries, my fault I meant to launch the 2012 thread in mid December but never got around to it!

I'm actually listening to the Baseball Prospectus podcast prospect report on the Reds right now, and they're not as high as some on Hamilton, believing he can only make the majors if he converts to CF, not having enough instincts to play an MLB SS or indeed 2B.

They are however, seriously high on Devin Mesoraco and feel he'll be a monster behind the plate 'An above average catcher and occasional AllStar' . Zack Cozart also gets a ton of love from Kevin Goldstein in particular.

Stephenson does get a honourable mention, as does Corcino and the team is rated mid-range, impressive given the Latos trade.

Yorman Rodrieguez is regarded as either a stud or a bust, at 19 he sounds like Destin Hood, all the tools and could be scary if he puts it together.

Another interesting type is 2010(?) 2nd rounder Gabriel Rosa, a 19yr old 3B prospect from Puerto Rico who can stay at 3B and 'has a very high ceiling if the power comes through'

They're also covering the Nats. They're wondering aloud if Rendon really is a 2B and I agree with the idea of playing Rendon at 3B and Zimmerman at 1B. The infield defense goes from 'fine' to 'ridiculous' under that scenario. Harper is given a mention but they're interested in Michael Taylor, a CF prospect with lots of tools who can play and stay at CF. I would've picked him over Hood but he doesn't have Hood's eye at the plate. He's Jason Parks' dark horse whilst Kevin Goldstein goes with Smoker btw.

They go on to rave about the Blue Jays system - best in baseball with D'Arnaud behind the plate and Marisnick at CF who are both scary good already. Anthony Gose gets the best tools prospect in the minors type. They appear to be stating that if any trade which sends away Halladay could be seen as a win, D'Arnaud, Drabek and Gose could be it.

How good is this system - they go 8 deep in pitching prospects without mentioning Drabek!

For a moment there I thought you were talking about the Michael Taylor we got from Philly; it wouldn't have surprised me as Beane will have to dump someone to make room on the 40 man roster when he signs Manny!

As for A's prospects, well most of them will be in Oakland this year, except for the geriatric retreads Beane has suddenly become fixated with that's all we've got.

I won't waste my time listing them, because as soon as I do they will get DFAd to make room for Barry Bonds or José Canseco.

It does feel like the Jays are coming!

(FYI above should have read 'sorry' mate not 'sort' mate - I think you read it that way anyway!)

Right then, i'll pick 5 Cubbies to follow for this year. Cubs system is famed for its depth rather than its stars at the moment, and I've picked 5 who are far away from the majors but all could have breakout seasons if things go their way:

1. Javier Baez - SS - 1st round pick from last year's draft. May move over to 3B but currently listed as a shortstop. Highly thought of for the bat but the defense isn't awful either.

2. Dan Vogelbach - 1B - Huge guy with massive power potential. Probably the highest power ceiling of any Cubs prospect. Should be fun to watch his progress, but he could easily have weight issues that derail him.

3. Jeimer Candelario - 3B - Could take a huge leap up the prospect charts next season. Was spectacular for his age in the dominican league, but will have to adjust to pro-ball in the states in the coming year.

4. Ronald Torreyes - 2B - Hard not to root for the little guy! Torreyes stands at a mighty 5 foot 7 inches tall, but so far his hit everywhere he's gone. Cubs aquired him from the Reds for Sean Marshall this winter.

5. Dae-Eun Rhee - SP - 2 years ago Rhee was putting together an excellent season until the injury bug bit and he went off for Tommy John surgery. Seemed to have rediscovered some of his form at the end of last year so could be a breakout candidate as well.

For a moment there I thought you were talking about the Michael Taylor we got from Philly; it wouldn't have surprised me as Beane will have to dump someone to make room on the 40 man roster when he signs Manny!

As for A's prospects, well most of them will be in Oakland this year, except for the geriatric retreads Beane has suddenly become fixated with that's all we've got.

I won't waste my time listing them, because as soon as I do they will get DFAd to make room for Barry Bonds or José Canseco.

What are you looking for from Norris, Peacock and Cole this year?

I think Milone will be an asset in the starting rotation, give you some innings, a lot of strikeouts and at a 4.00ERA clip.

I expect Norris to start in Sacramento and stay there all year, a complete waste of space in our system; as if we didn't have enough 1B/DH prospects who can't field!!!!

Peacock will be fighting Parker and Godfrey for a starting spot in the rotation in ST, but whoever wins the spot will probably be back down in AAA when Anderson is redy to come back. Gut tells me it'll be Godfrey. Not because he's the best of the three, very far from it, but because whoever starts in Oakland is going to get tagged with a lot of losses, better to protect the confidence of the real prospects.

Milone looks to me to be the most likely to start in the rotation and stick there; how the heck did you get him in the 10th round? Was he expected to stay at uni, but was persuaded by well above slot money?

Norris can play the OF, he still has the range and certainly the arm to play RF but any decision about his role will have to be made this year.

From what I can recall, Milone got above slot, but not massively so (I think about $50,000) as he was regarded as a Garrett Stephenson soft tossing type with not enough velocity to frighten the horses. However, Spin Williams taught him the curveball, that scary changeup and his smarts have done the rest. The A;s will enjoy those 5 pitches he can throw for strikes, he may not enjoy the infield defense.

Peacock? I reckon he'll be a Post-AllStar callup for the rotation, he needs another MLB calibre pitch to go with the heater, but if he can't find that he's got the mentality to be a setup guy and possible closer. That stadium's perfect for him though.

What do you reckon about AJ Cole? He seems to be regarded as a #2 with possible ace ceiling.

OK, I'll put the kiss of death on our prospects! I'll go with the Baseball Prospect Nation's list

1. Michael Choice - Will almost certainly start in Sacto, hopefully to force a call up to replace Crisp when we trade him for more prospects.

2. Sonny Gray - probably starts in Midland (AA) with a promotion to Sacramento at some point, possible cup of coffee.

3. Grant Green - Likely to start at AAA rather than AA, will have to prove he can play the outfield, we've given up on him being an infielder. Possible trade chip if he can show he can play CF.

4. Jarrod Parker - A lot to prove, I think his higher rating on many prospect lists is smoke and mirrors, scouts trusting their eyes rather than the cold hard reality of statistics.

5. Derek Norris - Should start at third base in Stockton in my opinion to see if he can play the position, we have too many 1B/DH candidates, and he should have no chance of staying at catcher in our system. However he will probably start in Sacto, but god knows in what position.

6. Brad Peacock - Outside chance of making the rotation, but should be in Sacramento

7. A.J. Cole - Ditto

8. FDLS - Will almost certainly be in the pen as a platoon set up guy with Balfour. I'd rather see him being stretched out for a starter role in AAA myself.

9. Chris Carter - Make or break year for Chris. He should be our DH for at lest the first 50 games (if we sign Manny) has yet to show he can handle big league pitching. I have my doubts he'll still be with the main club come July.

12. Collin Cowgill - Sacramento bound, with a call up later in the year. Had we not resigned Crips and added Smith and Gomes he would be starting in Oakland along with Choice and Taylor, shouldn't be wasting time on the bench but getting constant playing time in AAA.

13. Stephen Parker - See Peacock and Coe.

Others

Curiously absent from most lists is Tom Milone, I'm hoping to see him in the starting rotation come opening day, possibly the best pitcher we've acquired this winter but flying well under the radar for some reason.

Michael Taylor - will probably start in RF with Smith and Gomes platooning in left; but he has to earn it in ST after his poor shoings in the minors over the last two years.

Stephen Parker - Time is running out for him, should be our starting 3B in Sacramento, really doesn't have the power to play a corner infield position in the majors, but we're desperate

Jermaine Mitchell - Was last year a flash in the pan or has he finally found his feet? He'll have a chance to show in Sacto this year. If the latter, then he should be wearing green and gold come the end of July with Smith and Gomes traded.

Brandon Allen - Will be slugging it out with Barton for the first base job if he's not traded first. If it's decided by slugging, colour Barton gone!

Andrew Carignan - could end up in the pen, not sure if last year was a freak or for real.

Norris at 3B? as a Brandon Inge type? Interesting. Had he played there occasionally in the Nats system I'd say that was a decent shout, but although he's got the mobility and certainly the arm to play there I'm not sure, reckon his best role is RF.

Agree with you on Peacock, but think Midland's the better shot for Cole. Quite a few A's fans feel De Los Santos is now the closer in Oakland, do you feel this is possible?

Necessity is the mother of invention, and we don't have a 3rd baseman anywhere in the system, whereas we do have a few guys who can play right field. I'm not saying that's how the A's see it, I haven't got a clue why we took Norris in the deal, certainly not as a catcher. On the other hand if you'd tried turning him into a 3B he'd have been blocked.

As for the close role, I'd have thought that Devine would have the first shot at it, that was the role he was destined for when he got injured.Depends how well he's recovered from that injury I guess. FDLS is certainly in the mix for the job, he has been touted as the future closer .

The latest top 101 prospect list from Baseball Prospectus

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article....articleid=16020

Can't really argue with the top 10, my only quibble would be that I'd reverse #2 and #3.

Mike Olt only at #45 is a minor surprise. The guy is a genuine 3B with pop and an excellent arm who knocked seven bells out of AFL pitching. The old caveat regarding small sample size come into play but nethertheless, that was some display he put on in November.

Anthony Gose at #68 is the Marmite pick in that you either believe he can hit in the MLB or he'll be the second coming of Greg Golson.

Christian Yelich at #33 is that sleeper type on here whereby you don't realise just how good he's been until you have a look at the film and stats. One of those quiet 1-3 and a walk almost every game types.

Thing that strikes me as a Giants fan, the cupboard is bare....